"Trong the gioi soi dong cua ca cuoc the thao, viec nam bat va giai ma nhung bien dong keo khong chi la mot ky nang ma con la mot nghe thuat. Nhung con so tren bang ty le khong phai la co dinh; chung lien tuc nhay mua, phan anh dong chay thong tin, tam ly dam dong va nhung phan tich sau sac cua cac nha cai. Neu ban muon nang cao ty le thang cuoc cua minh tu muc “may rui” len muc “dua tren du lieu”, thi viec phan tich bien dong keo ro rang chinh la chia khoa vang ban can nam giu.



Hieu Ro Ban Chat Cua Bien Dong Keo



https://xoilac.army/ - Truoc het, can phai hieu bien dong keo la gi. Keo cuoc (hay ty le cuoc) la cong cu ma nha cai su dung de can bang rui ro va dinh gia xac suat xay ra cua mot ket qua cu the. Su bien dong xay ra khi ty le nay thay doi theo thoi gian, thuong la tu luc nha cai dua ra ty le ban dau (keo mo) cho den sat gio bong lan (keo dong).



Nhung thay doi nay khong xay ra ngau nhien. Chung la ket qua truc tiep cua:



1. Thong tin moi: Chan thuong phut chot, doi hinh ra san chinh thuc, hoac thoi tiet bat loi.

2. Dong tien cuoc (Action on the money): Khi mot luong tien lon do vao mot cua, nha cai buoc phai dieu chinh ty le de bao ve loi nhuan cua ho. Day la yeu to quan trong nhat.

3. Phan tich chuyen mon: Cac chuyen gia co the phat hien ra su sai lech trong ty le ban dau cua nha cai.



Viec theo doi sat sao su dich chuyen nay la trong tam cua phan tich bien dong keo.



Cac Loai Bien Dong Keo Thuong Gap va Cach Doc Vi



De thuc hien mot phan tich bien dong keo ro rang, nguoi choi can phan biet duoc cac kieu bien dong pho bien:



1. Bien Dong Thuan Chieu (Keo Di Theo Dong Tien)



Day la loai bien dong de hieu nhat. Vi du, keo chap ban dau la -0.5, nhung khi cang nhieu nguoi dat vao doi cua tren, nha cai ha ty le tra thuong hoac tham chi day keo len -0.75. Dieu nay cho thay thong tin hoac tam ly dam dong dang nghieng manh ve mot phia. Nguoi choi nen can trong: lieu day la thong tin xac thuc, hay chi la su bay cua nha cai (Square Money) muon thu hut them tien vao cua ho muon day di?



2. Bien Dong Nguoc Chieu (Keo Dao Chieu Bat Thuong)



Day la tin hieu dang chu y nhat trong phan tich bien dong keo. Gia su, doi A nhan duoc rat nhieu tien cuoc, nhung thay vi giam ty le thang cua ho, nha cai lai tang ty le an tien cho doi A hoac giam keo chap cua ho. Hien tuong nay thuong la dau hieu cho thay ""tien thong minh"" (Sharp Money) dang tham gia. Cac tay choi chuyen nghiep co the da phat hien ra thong tin noi bo hoac nhin thay sai sot trong viec dinh gia ban dau cua nha cai, va ho dang dat cuoc lon vao cua nguoc lai.



3. Keo Co Dinh Bat Chap Dong Tien Lon



Doi khi, du co rat nhieu tien do vao mot cua, ty le cuoc lai khong he nhuc nhich. Dieu nay thuong xay ra khi nha cai tu tin vao phan tich ban dau cua ho va san sang chap nhan rui ro, hoac ho dang su dung mot he thong tu dong can bang rat hieu qua. Doi voi nguoi choi, day la mot tin hieu trung lap, nhung cung co the la co hoi neu ban tin rang dong tien lon dang bi ""co tinh"" phot lo.



Ap Dung Phan Tich Bien Dong Keo Vao Chien Luoc Ca Cuoc



Lam the nao de bien nhung con so nhay mua kia thanh loi the thuc su?



Thu nhat, so sanh ty le mo va ty le dong. Su chenh lech cang lon, thong tin thi truong cang bien dong. Neu ban dat cuoc som (keo mo) va ty le do thay doi theo huong bat loi cho lua chon cua ban, hay xem xet viec lieu co nen ""chot loi"" (cash out) hoac dat them de can bang rui ro hay khong (hedging).



Thu hai, theo doi sat sao keo Chau A (Handicap). Keo Chau A nhay cam hon keo Chau Au (Moneyline) voi nhung thay doi ve suc manh tuong doi cua hai doi. Su thay doi du chi 0.25 trai (vi du tu -0.5 len -0.75) co the bao hieu mot su thay doi lon trong nhan dinh thi truong.



Thu ba, Dung de bi cuon theo tam ly dam dong. Muc tieu cua viec phan tich bien dong keo ro rang la de ban di nguoc lai so dong neu co ly do chinh dang. Neu keo chap giam manh, dieu do co nghia la doi yeu hon dang duoc danh gia cao hon, hoac doi manh hon dang bi danh gia thap hon muc thuc te. Hay luon tu hoi: ""Dieu gi dang thuc day su thay doi nay?""



Ket Luan



Thi truong ca cuoc la mot cuoc chien thong tin lien tuc. Viec phan tich bien dong keo khong phai la du doan ket qua tran dau dua tren cam tinh, ma la du doan hanh vi cua thi truong dua tren du lieu va dong chay tai chinh. Bang cach kien nhan theo doi, ghi chep lai nhung thay doi va hieu ro y nghia dang sau moi lan dich chuyen ty le, ban se trang bi cho minh mot cong cu manh me de dua ra nhung quyet dinh dat cuoc thong minh va co loi nhuan ben vung. Hay nho rang, trong ca cuoc, nguoi hieu thi truong hon nguoi xem tran dau thuong la nguoi chien thang."

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